The good thing with sampling many disciplines, is that sometimes you see the same principle emerge—with a different name, slant, and emphasis—but building that Rosetta stone then allows you to transfer insights across, and/or spot outlier disciplines who seem to dissent.
Judeas Pearl is a famous researcher in AI. He invented a causal reasoning technique that I think would be extremely useful with the large dataset that ivmmeta.com provides. It is based on Bayes but includes causality with a ‘do’ operator. He dislikes RCTs and shows many examples where it would be possible to get a lot higher confidence for a fraction of the cost. I must admit that I started to read ‘the book of why’ several times and haven’t finished it yet, getting a good intuition around Bayes seems difficult for me. However, I think he is on to something. I think he would be right up your sleeve.
"Data assimilation" is (mainly) the terminology used for (roughly) this in weather forecasting. All sorts of space-time measurements being injected into Navier Stokes around the clock to continuously maintain initial conditions for simulations into the future. Those systems are pretty impressive.
I must admit, this is all too smart for me these days. Could you just summarise, should I still be keeping Ivermectin in my emergency protocol kit? Are you?
I've often been interested in how movements in art like romanticism or impressionism carry across society from music and literature across to philosophy.
It's like the abstractions that drive the creation of art are also being used to think and reason with.
Even recent periods in us history that were 'bad' economically have 'bad' art and architecture to show for it. As if we are effected across the board, in every medium, by poor thinking.
What we're living through now in terms of neo post modernism, nihilism, etc can be seen through to the the movies, tv shows, and architecture in a dearth of creativity, a laziness of execution, and a cynicism of story and themes.
Anyway, I think this is another facet of what you are capturing here that may be interesting to explore more rigorously.
Excellent article. I think a philosopher could leverage this into a full-fledged theory of epistemology, perhaps similar to the "foundherentism" of Susan Haack.
As noted on another of your posts, all historical sciences must necessarily use multiple sources of evidence from which the investigator hopes to find consilience. Idiosyncratic example: The Paleoecology of the Florida Scrub, which is an ecological community on deep sands of paleodunes scattered across the peninsula. Question: How old is the community, and is it entirely autochthonous? The paleodunes can be dated by higher stands of sea level back to the late Miocene, with the paleodunes closer to the current shoreline being formed during Pleistocene interglacials. So, geology gives initial age estimates. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of the characteristic endemic scrub species show that some evolved from species already present in the Southeast (sand pine, sand skink, scrub lizard, red widow spider, short-tailed snake) and some winged endemics (scrub jay and some grasshoppers) arrived from the Southwest. Times of divergence of the endemic species average 2-4 million years ago, consistent with paleodune ages and long enough for them to be quite specialized for scrub conditions. The sand skink is virtually limbless and swims through the sand. Scrub pine has serotinous cones, meaning they don't release seeds until heated in a crown fire, which happens every 50-100 years because of lightning and a flammable chaparral understory. So, the evidence is consistent that wind, water and fluctuating sea levels gave Florida inland dunes. Deep sands favored a flora of flammable oak shrubs and a fire-resilient pine, as well as some specialized burrowers in the sand. More than a Just So Story by virtue of consilience.
Regarding Ren Tech, what they have done seems to me like a brute force approach because they must constantly recalculate their myriad correlations of stock prices with every variable conceivable. And they have a pretty large work force to do so. The best individual traders have found relationships that are more stable and therefore rather close to "laws of nature." Such persons' yearly gains are large multiples of Ren Tech's.
This reminds me how I reluctantly started getting convinced Steve Kirsch was onto something about vaccine safety. His original paper strived to find as many different ways to estimated the under reporting factor of VAERS to do precisely this. I believe that in some ways the optical mouse technology of one of his companies probably has to do the same thing. That is monitor the position using multiple inputs. The FLCCC when defending Ivermectin had an article that noted all the different kind of evidence. In vitro, In silico, and yes anecdotal information from Doctor's prescribing the treatment, in addition to mechanisms of action, observational studies and RCTS
One more thing this reminds me of is The China Study tried to validate what it was seeing in experiments on mice with observational data from the provinces of China to figure out what it was about the western diet that lent itself to diseases of affluence.
RCTs are the highest quality studies. Given how unreliable life-sciences are, slowness and expense are small drawbacks compared to rigor. For example, RCTs quickly showed that the COVID mRNA vaccines cause more harm than benefit. Yet, we are still using them because of regulatory capture and lower quality observational data. Sensor fusion indeed.
As the pointed lens of perception comes full circle once more in the evolution of a collective species, their divisions within that time axiom will come into holistic light once more. They will relearn to engage their sea of information with sense meters beyond the constrained narratives of a corrupted few. They will again learn and appreciate those gone ahead of the trivial many, the vital few whose many names over time have been called: Shamans, Healers. Acquired Savants, Dimensional Explorer’s, Sudden Geniuses , Travellers, Witches and more.
In the world of medicine, there is holism/reductionism. Holistic diagnosis is readily seen in Ayurvedic and traditional Chinese medicine. In therapeutics, plant medicines often have multiple active ingredients - plants are so complex to sort out using reductionist models that standard medicine omits their use. (Reductionism has humorous results when physicians try to learn about nutrition). Astrology - the map of the Heavens having multiple layers of redundancy, interrelationship, and overlapping signal - root assumption is that valid signals will show themselves on multiple levels of analysis. Within mathematics, fractal or self-referencing datasets.
Judeas Pearl is a famous researcher in AI. He invented a causal reasoning technique that I think would be extremely useful with the large dataset that ivmmeta.com provides. It is based on Bayes but includes causality with a ‘do’ operator. He dislikes RCTs and shows many examples where it would be possible to get a lot higher confidence for a fraction of the cost. I must admit that I started to read ‘the book of why’ several times and haven’t finished it yet, getting a good intuition around Bayes seems difficult for me. However, I think he is on to something. I think he would be right up your sleeve.
Fascinating! Is there something you recommend about Judea Pearl and RCTs?
https://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r477.pdf
"Data assimilation" is (mainly) the terminology used for (roughly) this in weather forecasting. All sorts of space-time measurements being injected into Navier Stokes around the clock to continuously maintain initial conditions for simulations into the future. Those systems are pretty impressive.
Thank you!
I must admit, this is all too smart for me these days. Could you just summarise, should I still be keeping Ivermectin in my emergency protocol kit? Are you?
:)
I've often been interested in how movements in art like romanticism or impressionism carry across society from music and literature across to philosophy.
It's like the abstractions that drive the creation of art are also being used to think and reason with.
Even recent periods in us history that were 'bad' economically have 'bad' art and architecture to show for it. As if we are effected across the board, in every medium, by poor thinking.
What we're living through now in terms of neo post modernism, nihilism, etc can be seen through to the the movies, tv shows, and architecture in a dearth of creativity, a laziness of execution, and a cynicism of story and themes.
Anyway, I think this is another facet of what you are capturing here that may be interesting to explore more rigorously.
Excellent article. I think a philosopher could leverage this into a full-fledged theory of epistemology, perhaps similar to the "foundherentism" of Susan Haack.
As noted on another of your posts, all historical sciences must necessarily use multiple sources of evidence from which the investigator hopes to find consilience. Idiosyncratic example: The Paleoecology of the Florida Scrub, which is an ecological community on deep sands of paleodunes scattered across the peninsula. Question: How old is the community, and is it entirely autochthonous? The paleodunes can be dated by higher stands of sea level back to the late Miocene, with the paleodunes closer to the current shoreline being formed during Pleistocene interglacials. So, geology gives initial age estimates. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of the characteristic endemic scrub species show that some evolved from species already present in the Southeast (sand pine, sand skink, scrub lizard, red widow spider, short-tailed snake) and some winged endemics (scrub jay and some grasshoppers) arrived from the Southwest. Times of divergence of the endemic species average 2-4 million years ago, consistent with paleodune ages and long enough for them to be quite specialized for scrub conditions. The sand skink is virtually limbless and swims through the sand. Scrub pine has serotinous cones, meaning they don't release seeds until heated in a crown fire, which happens every 50-100 years because of lightning and a flammable chaparral understory. So, the evidence is consistent that wind, water and fluctuating sea levels gave Florida inland dunes. Deep sands favored a flora of flammable oak shrubs and a fire-resilient pine, as well as some specialized burrowers in the sand. More than a Just So Story by virtue of consilience.
Regarding Ren Tech, what they have done seems to me like a brute force approach because they must constantly recalculate their myriad correlations of stock prices with every variable conceivable. And they have a pretty large work force to do so. The best individual traders have found relationships that are more stable and therefore rather close to "laws of nature." Such persons' yearly gains are large multiples of Ren Tech's.
This reminds me how I reluctantly started getting convinced Steve Kirsch was onto something about vaccine safety. His original paper strived to find as many different ways to estimated the under reporting factor of VAERS to do precisely this. I believe that in some ways the optical mouse technology of one of his companies probably has to do the same thing. That is monitor the position using multiple inputs. The FLCCC when defending Ivermectin had an article that noted all the different kind of evidence. In vitro, In silico, and yes anecdotal information from Doctor's prescribing the treatment, in addition to mechanisms of action, observational studies and RCTS
One more thing this reminds me of is The China Study tried to validate what it was seeing in experiments on mice with observational data from the provinces of China to figure out what it was about the western diet that lent itself to diseases of affluence.
RCTs are the highest quality studies. Given how unreliable life-sciences are, slowness and expense are small drawbacks compared to rigor. For example, RCTs quickly showed that the COVID mRNA vaccines cause more harm than benefit. Yet, we are still using them because of regulatory capture and lower quality observational data. Sensor fusion indeed.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22010283
https://norstadt.substack.com/p/severe-adverse-events-vs-severe-covid
As the pointed lens of perception comes full circle once more in the evolution of a collective species, their divisions within that time axiom will come into holistic light once more. They will relearn to engage their sea of information with sense meters beyond the constrained narratives of a corrupted few. They will again learn and appreciate those gone ahead of the trivial many, the vital few whose many names over time have been called: Shamans, Healers. Acquired Savants, Dimensional Explorer’s, Sudden Geniuses , Travellers, Witches and more.
In my book medicine means 'being in the spirit of healing', 'reconnecting with true nature'.
In other words : cancelling out obstructive 'matters', coming to one's senses.
In the world of medicine, there is holism/reductionism. Holistic diagnosis is readily seen in Ayurvedic and traditional Chinese medicine. In therapeutics, plant medicines often have multiple active ingredients - plants are so complex to sort out using reductionist models that standard medicine omits their use. (Reductionism has humorous results when physicians try to learn about nutrition). Astrology - the map of the Heavens having multiple layers of redundancy, interrelationship, and overlapping signal - root assumption is that valid signals will show themselves on multiple levels of analysis. Within mathematics, fractal or self-referencing datasets.