Hope you return to twitter soon Alex. I hope you cover the "I am a guru decooooooder" podcast on Elon Musk. Most of it was shabby and conspiratorial and was based on youtube videos of thunderfoot. Peter Hague has written a good criticism thread on that episode but a long form "decooooding" from you would be hilarious and informative on these two operate while outsourcing their podcast research to others
I'm interested in your livestreams Alex but I started with the Konstantin Kisin one - three hours is a hell of a long time!
Obviously it's your substack etc but I think you would get more views (if that's what you're after) with 30 minutes or so.
Alternatively, and you may be doing this already and if so sorry, you might put them out as audio podcasts, assuming there's not too much visual info.
I can listen for three hours while doing other stuff eg driving, walking the dog etc, but watching stuff for three hours - there's just not enough time to do that regularly almost nonmatter how important it is. I can't be alone in that.
This is all in a spirit of trying to spread your word - I thought your ivermectin stuff on Scott Alexander was excellent, but I could not get many people to take interest and mostly that was because it was too long.
Much obliged. Regarding probabilities, there often seems to be space for a hypothesis that is so unacceptable that official statements have no probative value. We train our minds to avoid those rabbit holes...
For example, what if the other Capitol Police died from "natural causes"? That would have raised too many red flags, with suicide being more acceptable. The alternatives of emotional trauma or assassination seem even less likely (but that's a gut judgement call).
There were 4 suicides of police officers that were involved in the Jan 6 events in the months following. From a total of 1200 officers present. That's 0.3%, or about 20 times the base rate. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4536806/)
I fail to understand what might cause that sort of wave of suicides. Any thoughts?
I think each case merits its own investigation. The second US Capitol Police fatality was Howard Liebengood on Jan. 10, 2021. The official judgement of suicide & line-of-duty death (nearly 2 years later) would have satisfied the Government and paid handsome benefits to the family. Congress passed a law specifically to enable the payment. Given that this is exactly what the government would say and do to protect itself, the official line has no probative value and we have to fall back on prior information (in a Bayesian sense).
What are the priors when two USCP Officers die shortly after (1) a riot and (2) probably taking early COVID shots? I've never heard of police dying from delayed effects of a riot, especially when there were no immediate deaths or intensive care cases. OTOH, Skidmore recently found a vax fatality rate of roughly 1/1000. I would say (2) is 10x more likely than (1) to be the main cause, although there are also other possibilities.
Hope you return to twitter soon Alex. I hope you cover the "I am a guru decooooooder" podcast on Elon Musk. Most of it was shabby and conspiratorial and was based on youtube videos of thunderfoot. Peter Hague has written a good criticism thread on that episode but a long form "decooooding" from you would be hilarious and informative on these two operate while outsourcing their podcast research to others
I'm interested in your livestreams Alex but I started with the Konstantin Kisin one - three hours is a hell of a long time!
Obviously it's your substack etc but I think you would get more views (if that's what you're after) with 30 minutes or so.
Alternatively, and you may be doing this already and if so sorry, you might put them out as audio podcasts, assuming there's not too much visual info.
I can listen for three hours while doing other stuff eg driving, walking the dog etc, but watching stuff for three hours - there's just not enough time to do that regularly almost nonmatter how important it is. I can't be alone in that.
This is all in a spirit of trying to spread your word - I thought your ivermectin stuff on Scott Alexander was excellent, but I could not get many people to take interest and mostly that was because it was too long.
Either way, keep up the good work.
As a federal police officer and worker at the US Capitol, the deceased had access to vaccines beyond the local DC program.
This article describes how there were thousands of early doses for the US Congress, including for Capitol police.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/12/17/capitol-hill-first-coronavirus-vaccine-448008
Thank you!
Much obliged. Regarding probabilities, there often seems to be space for a hypothesis that is so unacceptable that official statements have no probative value. We train our minds to avoid those rabbit holes...
For example, what if the other Capitol Police died from "natural causes"? That would have raised too many red flags, with suicide being more acceptable. The alternatives of emotional trauma or assassination seem even less likely (but that's a gut judgement call).
There were 4 suicides of police officers that were involved in the Jan 6 events in the months following. From a total of 1200 officers present. That's 0.3%, or about 20 times the base rate. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4536806/)
I fail to understand what might cause that sort of wave of suicides. Any thoughts?
I think each case merits its own investigation. The second US Capitol Police fatality was Howard Liebengood on Jan. 10, 2021. The official judgement of suicide & line-of-duty death (nearly 2 years later) would have satisfied the Government and paid handsome benefits to the family. Congress passed a law specifically to enable the payment. Given that this is exactly what the government would say and do to protect itself, the official line has no probative value and we have to fall back on prior information (in a Bayesian sense).
What are the priors when two USCP Officers die shortly after (1) a riot and (2) probably taking early COVID shots? I've never heard of police dying from delayed effects of a riot, especially when there were no immediate deaths or intensive care cases. OTOH, Skidmore recently found a vax fatality rate of roughly 1/1000. I would say (2) is 10x more likely than (1) to be the main cause, although there are also other possibilities.
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-023-07998-3
Other officers who died were DC police - a topic for another time.